10000000 iPhones – An easy goal based on evidence.

This image described by Infineon, Technology Forecasts, supply chain, 10mil

Some wallstreet "geniuses" have been playing with figures for Apple iPhone sales in ’08.

In just a few days, we’ve heard the following from them:

Apple cannot sell ten million iPhones.

Apple can definitely sell ten million iPhones.

Apple will delay the iPhone 3G launch due to a supply problem with Infineon processor.

Let’s get to the real numbers:

Based on Q2 Asia Pacific Handset Vendor and Technology Forecasts report from IE Market Research Corp:

Handset sales will go through the roof.

Quoted from the report:

– Unit shipments into Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) are expected to rise from 485 million units in 2008 to 684 million units in 2011. – In the Asia Pacific region, we are expecting major growth in converged mobile device sales. We expect that shipments of converged mobile devices in this region will more than double from 49 million in 2008 to 109 million in 2011, making this region a key battleground for vendors looking to take market share. – 70% of the 684 million units shipped in 2011 are expected to be 2.5G handsets. We expect shipments of 2.5G handsets to increase from 359 million in 2008 to 479 million in 2011. – Nokia and Samsung will grow in the Asia Pacific Region while Motorola will continue to suffer. Our model estimates that Nokia continues to be the leader in this regional handset market with a 40% market share. Samsung has shown growth thanks to its strength in 3G handsets, particularly in South Korea and other East Asian markets.

Although they didn’t cover the iPhone in their calculations, we know some of the units sold will be for Apple’s benefit. With all the deals Apple has around the globe, it is most certainile plausible. Futhermore, Apple may announce two iPhones at the WWDC (like a smaller cousin i.e. iPhone Nano).

As far as the Infineon processor supply, Apple was just ranked as the top company for displaying superior supply chain performance. [Via AMR Research released its Supply Chain Top 25 report, an annual ranking highlighting companies that display superior supply chain performance, capabilities, and leadership.] The point is, they know what they’re doing. You better start looking over at vendors who use that processor, since they’ll probably be delaying their products.

Week links, perhaps, but better than rumors.

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