As if the stock drubbing caused by Steve Jobs' health-related sabbatical wasn't bad enough news for Apple, UBS analyst Maynard Um expects Apple's iPhone 3G shipments for the quarter may fall below his 5 million unit estimate. On the other hand, Um is also jumping on the "yes, Virginia, there IS an 'iPhone Nano' coming" bandwagon by predicting the arrival of a 4 GB iPhone:
"We believe iPhone shipments could be below our 5 million unit forecast
but our UBS semis team and our checks indicate a new 4GB iPhone which
may be helping to increase build rates (about 7 million in Q1 and
initial 2009 plans of about 23 million ‚Äì- relatively good numbers),"
Mr. Um said. "However, we caution that build rates have seen cuts in
the past and may change and worry units could be driven at the expense
of ASP and margins partially due to cannibalization."
Um also thinks Apple stock should be valued at around US$110; as of Thursday's market close, it's currently trading at $86.43, down 1.28 (1.46%).